1 Sep 2010
The Great Dilemma
Democratization processes in Armenia and Azerbaijan are closely connected with the unresolved conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh. The two issues influence each other drastically. And the question is whether a solution to one of them will somehow bring us closer to the solution of the other. If yes, then which one is first to come: democracy or resolution?
The level of the Karabakh conflict’s impact on democratization processes in the two countries is high indeed. The conflict is first of all used as an effective manipulation tool similarly by the authorities and opposition in Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is a good leverage to play populism, “expose” state traitors for gaining political dividends and even oust governments and change power.
An example of how much the conflict can influence domestic politics is the change of power that took place in Armenia in 1998. The then-president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan was ousted of power because of his stance on the Karabakh issue. The oppositional forces didn’t approve of his adherence to the conflict’s step-by-step resolution plan proposed by the OSCE Minsk Group, and Ter-Petrosyan had to resign voluntarily and give the turn to those who were thinking that this way of resolution was against Armenian interests.
This experience could be repeated anytime whenever there is a chance for a peace deal on Karabakh. The situation might be the same in Azerbaijan as well where manipulations over the conflict are also effectively practiced.
The nationalistic rhetoric experienced in Armenia and Azerbaijan again has to do with democracy issues: nationalism has proven to be the best way of distracting people from democracy and human rights and maintaining the autocratic power.
There are also ways in which democracy drawbacks could influence the conflict resolution process. A resolution of such a sensitive conflict that requires hard concessions from both sides can’t be achieved unless there are strong democratic governments who have the support and trust of their respective nations. Apparently, neither Armenians nor Azerbaijanis will ever accept the decisions that were made by their illegitimate authorities and where their voices were not counted. Therefore, democratic reforms and legitimate elections can be an important factor to achieve the resolution to the conflict.
On the other side, no one can guarantee that democratic forces who might ever come to power in Armenia and Azerbaijan won’t be as much or even more nationalistic when it comes to the conflict.
Yet with a newly emerging trend in Armenian and Azerbaijani societies the dilemma of democracy vs. resolution is considerably changing patterns.
With both the resolution to the conflict and democratization, changes are taking place not at the state level but at the grassroots level, and with these changes the two processes are influencing each other positively.
There are civil society organizations and individuals that contribute to the conciliation between Armenian and Azerbaijani societies: the use of social media in human level contacts, the existence of blogs and other Track II diplomacy initiatives are great examples of conciliation endeavors made by groups and individuals that don’t see any policy changes from the part of their governments but understand the need of those changes for achieving ultimate peace in the region.
The same kind of “guerrilla” movements are initiated inside the two countries for bringing change in democracy, civil rights and human rights. Groups and individuals initiate public actions for their civil and political rights and try to make their voice heard by the government.
For example, in Armenia, a Facebook group that was initially opened as a discussion platform for the opponents of a law amendment that would allow a foreign language become the language of education in public schools, soon gathered more than 3,000 activists and started real, out-of-net actions against the law amendment. Under the pressure of this group, the government had to make some concessions and reduce the number of schools where the language of education would be a foreign language, not Armenian.
While the issues of democratization and resolution of the conflict continue interfering with each other at the state level, the grassroots movements come to solve the great dilemma. If they succeed, these movements in both directions will eventually herald the emergence of new, more democratic societies that will learn how to influence state politics and solve the conflicts with their neighbors.