The South Caucasus is in a political deadlock for many reasons, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict being one of the most important ones among them. The football diplomacy of Armenia and Turkey of 2008–2010 opened a possibility for the region’s countries to get out of that deadlock. However, this chance was not used, and the potential for improvement of the situation in the region due to normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations still remains open. The domestic problems of Turkey are the principal reason for this failure, but it seems that Azerbaijan’s efforts aimed at undermining the rapprochement process also played an important role. As a result, the region may remain in this dangerous deadlock for an indefinite period of time.
The Nagorno-Karabakh problem has become a factor that is acting negatively on every aspect of life in the South Caucasus. Armenians and Azeris present mutually exclusive demands for the status of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and the positions of the conflicting sides do not seem to be moving closer. Recent rapprochement efforts between Armenia and Turkey might encourage a move away from the deadlock and help Turkey become a more active, neutral player in the South Caucasus. Unfortunately, this opportunity was not used as Turkey favored Azerbaijan in its policy on Karabakh. Below is my view of the problem in more detail.
Thus, the current deadlocked situation may continue for an indefinite period of time. Turkish-Armenian problems, including the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, are far from being a priority for Turkey. Azerbaijan, which has significant influence on Turkey, sees the blockade of Armenia as its principal tool for resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Yet, Armenia is prepared and continues to prepare itself for the continuation of the blockade, meaning that it will have no influence on the policy of either Armenia or Nagorno-Karabakh. As a consequence, mutual trust will not increase in the South Caucasus and the region will remain in the current dangerous situation for a long time to come.
[i] In my assessment, the only result the blockade and the trade embargo have brought is the increased number of the poor in the region, and not only in Armenia. For example, the existing ban on imports of electricity from Armenia makes poorer not only the people of Armenia, but also those in Azerbaijan and Turkey, who need electricity but cannot get it for political reasons. As a result, they too have become angry and less inclined to find compromise and peace with their neighbors. This is, by the way, more evidence that the blockade has been useless from the point of view of its declared purpose, supporting the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
[ii] The UN Secretary General made this statement during a meeting with Edward Nalbandian, the Foreign Minister of Armenia, last September. Day.az (2010, September 27). Ban Ki-moon supports withdrawal of snipers from contact line. Retrieved from http://www.news.az/articles/armenia/23406