For the first time in three decades, Armenia and Türkiye stand at a historic juncture with the prospect of an open border. Shifts in regional security dynamics - particularly the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia’s weakening influence due to the war in Ukraine - have created space for new regional openings and cooperation.

Opening the Armenia–Türkiye border would bring significant economic benefits to both countries. Eastern Anatolian provinces bordering Armenia are among Türkiye’s least developed regions, with GDP per capita well below the national average (see Figure 1). The border opening could serve as a tool for economic revitalization in these provinces. For Armenia, which remains economically dependent on Russia, normalization and an open border would help diversify trade and strengthen resilience. 

First, sustaining the normalization process requires local engagement and support. Border communities in Eastern Anatolia and Armenia must see tangible benefits. When citizens see the potential for improved livelihoods, increased opportunities, and regional stability linked to cooperation and open borders, governments gain the political space - and stronger incentives - to advance normalization efforts and open the border. At the same time, preparing societies for the policy steps that may be taken helps reduce the risk of backlash and contributes to more stable and lasting peace. 

The most effective way to engage border communities and build broader public support for normalization is by emphasizing the tangible economic benefits of cross-border collaboration, particularly in terms of inclusive job creation and income generation on both sides.

Tourism offers a practical entry point, offering opportunities to stimulate regional economic development, thus reinforcing societal support for peace. As highlighted in a previous TEPAV study, border regions host untapped cultural and eco-tourism potential, and a joint eco-cultural tourism strategy could serve as a foundation for cross-border cooperation. 

The tourism value chain and tourism-related services, in particular, offer high potential for generating inclusive and sustainable employment. Tourism’s strength lies not only in its direct employment impact but also in its multiplier effects. Each job in tourism can generate 1.5 additional jobs in other parts of the economy. These include jobs in sectors linked to tourism, such as agriculture, digital services, creative industries, construction, and manufacturing.

Tourism already plays a major role in Armenia’s economy, accounting for about a quarter of exports. Related services - accommodation, food, arts, entertainment, and recreation - have been key contributors to Armenia’s growth over the past decade. Armenia also outperforms Eastern Anatolia in attracting international tourists, particularly from the EU and the United States, which tend to spend more per visitor. 

An open border would bring shared benefits by activating a cross-border regional development agenda centered around the tourism value chain. For Eastern Anatolia, it offers the chance to tap into international tourism demand, increasing economic growth potential and employment. Armenian businesses, experienced in package tourism, could complement these efforts by integrating Eastern Anatolia’s heritage sites into cross-border routes, thereby enhancing the region’s overall tourism appeal.

Second, regional connectivity projects made possible by an open border could help Armenia reduce dependence on Russia by diversifying its trade partners and exports, thereby strengthening its economic resilience.  This challenge extends beyond Armenia: most countries in the South Caucasus and Central Asia have remained tied to Russian supply chains since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Most of their trade is concentrated in resource exports. These countries have not diversified their exports and have mirrored Russia’s decline in economic competitiveness. In contrast, countries which were part of the former Socialist bloc in Central Europe have since integrated into EU value chains, diversified their economies, and strengthened their global competitiveness. 

Figure 2.  Evolution of economic complexity, 1993-2023

Source: The Growth Lab at Harvard University, 2019, "International Trade Data (HS, 92)", TEPAV calculations.

An important step toward strengthening regional connectivity came in August 2025, when Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, at a U.S.-hosted summit, initialed a draft peace treaty and signed a transport connectivity framework called the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP). Running through Armenia’s southern Syunik province – historically, known as Zangezur - TRIPP would link mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via Meghri and then on to Türkiye and the EU.

TRIPP envisions reviving Soviet-era railway connections and providing alternatives to the current, longer route through Georgia. Shorter routes would enhance trade and reduce costs, aligning Türkiye with the broader Middle Corridor initiative. On August 22, 2025, the Turkish Minister of Transport and Infrastructure, Abdulkadir Uraloğlu, inaugurated the groundbreaking ceremony for the Kars–Iğdır–Aralık–Dilucu Railway Line, which will form the Turkish leg of TRIPP.

Realizing TRIPP requires overcoming both infrastructure (“hardware”) and regulatory (“software”) challenges. According to the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index (LPI), countries in the South Caucasus and Central Asia perform very poorly. A 2023 World Bank survey on the Middle Corridor identified lack of coordination as the most critical challenge in the trans-Caspian corridor, since no single operator manages transport end-to-end, resulting in delays at interfaces and transshipments. Sea crossings on the Caspian and Black Seas also face persistent inefficiencies: despite excess port capacity, vessel shortages, high tariffs, and frequent documentation errors hinder operations. Railways encounter further bottlenecks at port–rail interfaces, caused by outdated equipment, weak connections, and inefficient practices. Border crossings add another layer of delay, as fragmented railway operations and poor inter-country coordination disrupt the smooth flow of goods. Finally, the absence of integrated IT systems exacerbates inefficiencies, with duplicated documentation, inconsistent data requirements, and unaligned procedures.

Figure 3 Logistics Performance Index, 2023  

Source: CEPII BACI, TEPAV calculations

Note: The numbers above the bars show the countries' rankings.

Ultimately, normalization between Armenia and Türkiye is about shaping a broader regional future. By aligning local benefits, such as tourism-driven employment, with larger connectivity and diversification frameworks, both sides can turn this historic opening into a foundation for lasting peace and prosperity.

For Governments:

  • As discussions on opening the border advance, a practical initial measure could be to permit international tourists to cross;
  • To make TRIPP viable, both physical infrastructure gaps and “software” issues must be considered. Challenges already evident in the Trans-Caspian connection or the Middle Corridor offer useful insights. Priorities should include simplifying procedures through stronger coordination between border agencies and railways of different countries along the route, as well as leveraging digital solutions to streamline and minimize errors in documentation and ensuring interoperability of digital systems between countries; upgrading and constructing infrastructure and equipment including railway infrastructure such as the Kars–Iğdır–Aralık–Dilucu Railway Line. 

For Civil Society

  • To fully unlock its potential and make tourism a meaningful contributor to normalization, it is important to map the entire tourism value chain, assess its economic impact, and identify how its components connect across the border, reinforcing visibility, dissemination, and advocacy efforts of project outcomes to investors, NGOs, public stakeholders, and media.
  • Bringing together tour operators from Armenia and Türkiye to identify multiple tourism routes (cultural, eco-tourism, and gastronomy). Beyond route identification, tour operators could jointly research which countries’ target audiences these routes can serve, what types of promotions are most suitable, and which media channels are best for outreach.
  • Bringing together historians of art and architects from Armenia and Türkiye to research and document the history and cultural value of specific sites for restoration, including the Ani Bridge.