The South Caucasus is believed to be a significant geopolitical point in the world. For example, Brzezinski (1997) considers it as the “Eurasian Balkans”, taking into account its importance and tensions. Especially during the past two decades, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has had considerable influence in the geopolitical atmosphere of the region. Consequently, geopolitical rivalries have been concentrated on that conflict, too. This paper reviews Russia’s and USA’s interests in and around the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The hypothesis of this work is that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, for security and instrumental factors, has an influential role for both Russian and American interests in the South Caucasus.
Since the start of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, USA and Russia have pursued various interests in and around that conflict. Their behaviors come from some circumstances both directly and indirectly related to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. In this work, I review three dimensions of the interests of these actors: energy, geographic and geopolitical-instrumental. The structure of those interests is a complex one, shaping a system with four level triangles.
The overall picture of the interested parties in and around the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is presented in the figure 1 below.
The energy dimension
The energy dimension of the interests of Russia and USA in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict relates to the conflict zone indirectly, since the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh is not rich of energy resources. However, the conflict affects the energy interests of Russia and the USA in the region, since it is a strong security factor in exploiting the Azerbaijani hydrocarbon resources. When in 1994 the “contract of the century” was signed between Azerbaijan and oil companies from Russia, the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom to exploit the oil of the Caspian Sea’s Azeri-Chirag-Gunashali field (Ismailzade, 2005; Yergin, 2011: 54), it launched the competition in particular between the USA and Russia for the regional energy resources and communications. That rivalry has become more salient in the South Caucasus when the USA supported to the constructions of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas (South Caucasus) pipeline, by which the Azerbaijani hydrocarbon resources are being transported to Europe via Georgia and Turkey. Recently, the West has concentrated its attention to a new pipeline project (i.e. the Trans-Anatolia (TANAP) gas project), which aims to link the Azerbaijani and Central Asian gas reserves to Europe (Socor, 2012). Backing those energy projects, Washington seeks some geopolitical goals, such as:
The constructions of the abovementioned pipelines have strengthened the Moscow-Washington rivalry over the energy resources and communications of the region, where the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, in particular as a security factor, has its special place. Hence, any possible renewal of war in Nagorno-Karabakh would put the valuable communications in danger, especially since they run in vulnerable distance from the conflict zone. For example, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is located only 15 kilometers away from the northern border of Nagorno-Karabakh (Akgakoca et al., 2009; German, 2012: 226; Paul, 2010: 2). This means that the powers interested in the security of the pipelines should seek peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict or at least maintain the status quo there. On the other hand, since those pipelines aim to ensure the energy security of Europe in a way of bypassing the Russian supplies, Moscow needs to impede the effective implementation of those projects. In that respect, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is considered to be a handy tool with its potential to cause instability (Ismailzade, 2005).
The geographic dimension
Geographically, the South Caucasus is situated at the cross-roads of the East and West, the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea regions, which makes it a significant region for the actors of the third and fourth triangles. That geographic potential is not only limited by energy communications but also for other economic and military purposes. Although energy communications also relate to the geographic dimension, however, due to their strategic significance they are discussed as a separate dimension. Geographically, Nagorno-Karabakh has both direct and indirect significance for the taken powers. Indirectly, it is again a strong security factor for other regional communications. For example, Azerbaijan serves as an air corridor for the coalition forces in Afghanistan and the American bases in Europe (Jones, 2005). Especially after the loss of Pakistan as a partner in the fight against terrorism, the role of the Azerbaijani air corridor has increased for USA. Logically, a new war in the conflict zone would jeopardize American deliveries to Afghanistan. Taking into account the American-Russian cooperation in the issue of Afghanistan, it could be claimed that here the Russian interests at least do not oppose the American ones. The geography of Nagorno-Karabakh is important for both the USA and Russia from the aspect of the Iranian issue as well. Since Nagorno-Karabakh is an immediate neighbor of Iran, any military attack to Iran may increase the possibility of using the Nagorno-Karabakh territory for anti-Iranian purposes (Jackson, 2010). Undoubtedly, from this point of view, the interests of Moscow and Washington are in disagreement. Therefore, they still keep the status quo, avoiding deployment of peacekeepers in those territories.
The geopolitical-instrumental dimension
Although this dimension may be somewhat related to the first ones, I have separated only the interests where the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict serves as a geopolitical tool or obstacle in the whole region. In particular, the following interests are noteworthy under this dimension:
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, interrelated with other geopolitical processes in the region, has shaped a four-triangle structure of actors around it. Being players of the highest-level triangle, the USA and Russia, in a deep sense, have at least competing interests in and around the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, since it is an influential factor for the geopolitical atmosphere of the South Caucasus.
Based on the analysis of this paper, it could be claimed that in particular the security factor of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is essential for the taken countries’ interests. Specifically, the stability of the region and the safety of communications (both hydrocarbon and transportation) are highly dependent on the stability and predictability of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which may be manipulated by the USA and Russia for their own interests.
However, it is not only a security factor, but also a decisive geopolitical obstacle or tool for Washington and Moscow on the ways of reaching their interests in the South Caucasus. Especially the cases of the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement process and maintaining the Russian influence on Yerevan and Baku are of note. So, the hypothesis of this piece of work has been proved.
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